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Lithium Ion Industry

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The Next-Generation Battery Roadmap:
Quantifying How Solid-State, Lithium-Sulfur, and Other Batteries Will Emerge After 2020
Lead Analysts:

Coverage Area: Energy Storage

Cosmin Laslau, Ph.D., Senior Analyst

October 2015

Lilia Xie, Research Associate
Christopher Robinson, Research Associate

Research Sample

Executive Summary
Today’s Li-ion batteries are under intense pressure to evolve, leading to longerrunning electronics, cheaper electric vehicles, and a market for stationary storage; through our analysis, we find that:
The biggest growth in batteries will actually come from gradually evolving Li-ion batteries, through incremental innovations like higher-voltage cathodes and electrolytes, paired with higher-capacity active materials like silicon-containing composites
Next-generation batteries must wait until nearly 2030 to gain noteworthy market share – around then, solid-state batteries will win about $3 billion in transportation and $2 billion in electronics; lithium-sulfur will capture market share, too, though its growth will be slower
Early adopter markets will be key – we recommend focusing on military, wearables, IoT
100%
80%
Battery type 60% market share in
40%
transportation
20%
0%

Li-ion

Advanced Li-ion

Lithium-sulfur

Solid-state

2

Research Sample

Table of contents
Landscape

4

Evolving Li-ion will be tough to beat, thanks to advanced cathodes and more

6

Applications will continue to demand more than what advanced Li-ion can provide

9

Next-generation battery options are many, and vary by application type

13

Analysis

20

Next-generation batteries will first start to make an impact after 2025

22

Despite Seeo and Sakti3 acquisitions, many good targets remain

29

Niche applications will be key initial markets for next-generation batteries

43

Outlook

45

3

-

Lithium manganese oxide (LiMn2O4, LMO; spinel-type)
Lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4, LFP)
Advanced Li-ion cathodes:

Li+

Electrolyte

Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (Li(NixMnyCo1-x-y)O2, NMC)

Li+

Separator

Lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2, LCO)

+

Electrolyte

Incumbent Li-ion cathodes: Li-containing transition metal oxides, at < 4.1 V:



Anode

Today’s Li-ion batteries still enjoy incremental improvements every year, boosting performance within established design and manufacturing process, via better cathodes (this slide) and anodes, electrolytes, separators (next slides)

Cathode
Aluminum current collector

e-

Copper current collector

Research Sample

Li-ion will remain a moving target, with one of key improvements being better cathodes e D50 = 16 µm

Higher-voltage and higher-capacity materials, including:


“Layered-layered” oxide materials, such as BASF’s high-energy NMC
(see the report “The Li-ion NMC Patent Lawsuit and Its Fallout: Waging
Billion-dollar War over Crystal Phases”)



Spinel-type oxides (such as LiNi0.5Mn1.5O4)



Polyanion materials (such as LiCoPO4)

Advantages: Greater volumetric and gravimetric energy density, potentially reaching or exceeding the 300 Wh/kg to 350 Wh/kg level
Challenges: Low cycle life due to material degradation upon cycling
(commonly less than 100 cycles), capacity fade, safety concerns

High-energy NMC cathode material from BASF
4

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Beyond today’s incumbent Li-ion and advancing Li-ion, there are many next-generation battery options
Li-ion-based

Other-ion based
Incumbent
Li-ion today

Na-ion

Advanced Liion: Improved cathodes, anodes

Mg-ion

Al-ion

Miscellaneous designs
Solid-state
with polymer electrolyte Solid-state with ceramic electrolyte Lithium
-sulfur
(Li-S)

Lithium
-air
(Li-air)
5

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Major players are already betting big on nextgeneration batteries, but many questions remain
In late 2015, the next-generation battery race officially kicked into gear, with two landmark acquisitions being the first-ever buys by major corporations of solid-state battery start-ups:

2015’s first landmark buy in solid-state batteries

Automotive supplier Bosch bought California-based Seeo, a developer of polymer solid-state batteries, to help with Bosch’s ambitious goals to cut energy storage costs by 75% (see the September 1, 2015 LRESJ)
Electronics maker Dyson bought Michigan-based Sakti3, another developer of solid-state batteries, for $90 million, and is considering investing a further $1 billion to scale up its technology towards massproduction

Despite other examples abound – including BASF investing $50 million into lithium-sulfur developer Sion Power, and Toyota Motor running of the world’s largest solid-state battery research laboratories
– many questions remain unanswered:

2015’s second landmark buy in solid-state batteries

When will next-generation batteries really begin to impact the market, and to what extent?
Who are the leading developers of next-generation battery technology?
What applications should developers target to maximize chances of success? 6

Research Sample

Our methodology sizes the next-generation battery market, ranks developers, and identifies early adopters
This report’s analysis is in three parts:
1.

We forecast the adoption roadmap for battery technology, quantifying how evolving
Li-ion will lose some market share to next-generation energy storage, and how that varies by application

2.

We rank next-generation battery developers using primary research, comparing them through our proprietary Lux Innovation Grid framework

3.

We study how to best bring next-generation batteries to market, analyzing the strategies of developers as they target niches and early adopters

This analysis is based on a mixture of primary and secondary research, based on interviews with technology developers – both start-ups and large corporations – along with interviews with customers in various applications, including transportation, stationary, and electronics
Because of the long timeframe involved – our analysis goes out to 2035 – clients are urged to view these figures as directionally indicative of order-of-magnitude market trends, rather than focusing on the exact figures associated with this
20-year forecasted view
7

Research Sample

We forecast no significant next-generation battery adoption until the late 2020s in transportation
Transportation will see no significant adoption of next-generation batteries before the late 2020s – until then, Li-ion will dominate, evolving to become advanced Li-ion:
We define advanced Li-ion as a varied mix of higher-voltage and higher-capacity materials, but a step beyond today’s NMC or NCA paired with graphite
We forecast lithium-sulfur and solid-state batteries to reach 4% and 2% market penetration in 2030 in transportation, respectively, rising to 8% and 12% in 2035
Lithium-sulfur’s slight lead in market entry will be due to initially simpler manufacturing, lower costs, and good performance, although solid-state will catch up and pass it by 2035
100%
80%
Battery type 60% market share in transportation 40%
20%
0%

Li-ion

Advanced Li-ion

Lithium-sulfur

Solid-state

8

Research Sample

The Lux Innovation Grid compares companies on their technical value, business execution, and maturity
We now turn to look at specific start-ups currently offering next-generation batteries:
Drawing from our interviews with executives at these companies and in the industry, we plot their potential on the Lux Innovation Grid (LIG):

The strength and value of a company’s technology determines its Technical
Value score. Companies with useful products and services that lower cost, boost performance, or increase revenue are valuable to customers, partners, and investors. The Technical Value score not only takes into account the absolute performance level of a certain solution, but also how it fits with the requirements of the target application.

A company’s ability to perform and achieve success determines its Business Execution score.
Business execution is a measure of the company’s ability to run a viable organization, growing sales, managing costs, and making customers and investors happy.

The completeness of a company’s development reflects its Maturity.
Mature companies have secured a place and built a presence in the market. Dot size indicates the company’s maturity on a scale from
1 (immature) to 5
(developed).
A company’s success is measured holistically by the Lux Take. The
Lux Take is an overall ranking mechanism based on the considerations taken in the above areas, placing companies into five categories indicated by dot color.
9

Research Sample

Details of the methodology behind the Lux
Innovation Grid’s scoring metrics
Technical Value Criteria

Description

Technology/Solution Value

Qualitative measure of the value of a company’s offering, in terms of performance and cost

Market Size

Size of the addressable market for a company’s technology

IP Position

Qualitative measure of the value of the company’s patents or trade secrets and considers defensibility

Competitive Landscape

Qualitative ranking of the strength and amount of competition that a company faces in its part of the health care markets

Key Metrics

Qualitative score based on capital costs, operating or recurring costs, and energy use

Business Execution Criteria

Description

Momentum

Qualitative measure of the rate of a company’s progress

Partnerships

Qualitative measure of the strength and number of a company’s partnerships

Revenue/Employees

Company’s revenue divided by the number of employees; measure of profitability

Barriers to Growth

Qualitative ranking of the barriers that the organization has to overcome to achieve growth

Cash Position

Company’s cash on hand; measure of company’s livelihood

Maturity Criteria

Description

Employee Count

Number of employees

Stage of Development

Qualitative score based on the company’s primary product’s stage of development

Revenue

Amount of yearly revenue

Age

Number of years since company was founded

10

Research Sample

Battery incumbents continue to invest billions into
Li-ion improvements – sums that next-generation battery developers should aim to match
Major Li-ion developers are scaling up manufacturing capacity aggressively, even in the face of existing overcapacity (the U.S. DOE estimated global utilization at 22% in 2014)
Developers will face continuing overcapacity if plug-in vehicle sales do not grow rapidly
Excess Li-ion capacity will encourage cell makers to keep iterating on designs that can use the same manufacturing techniques as Li-ion

Disruptive next-generation companies (both in new technologies and manufacturing processes) will most likely not be today’s incumbent Li-ion players, since these incumbents are focused on more incremental efforts – but next-generation developers can hope to learn from them:
Company

Anticipated new capacity Year fully operational Investment

Location

Tesla Motors,
Panasonic

35 GWh

2020

$4 billion to $5 billion

United States

BYD

18 GWh to
30 GWh

2020

$2 billion to $4 billion

China, Brazil, United
States

Boston Power

8 GWh

2018

$0.3+ billion

China

Samsung SDI

5 GWh

2016

$0.6 billion

China

LG Chem

3 GWh

2016

$0.3+ billion

China
11

Research Sample

Thank you for downloading this Lux Research Energy Storage Intelligence research sample, which contains selected pages from our 49-page research document “The Next-Generation Battery
Roadmap: Quantifying How Solid-State, Lithium-Sulfur, and Other Batteries Will Emerge After
2020.”

Our research samples are offered to exemplify Lux Research’s deep technical expertise and business analysis across a vast number of emerging technology domains. Our analysts provide ongoing market intelligence and technology scouting to help members find new business opportunities and make better strategic decisions.
Additional Resources:
•Download: Energy Storage Intelligence Service Brochure
•Download: Measuring and Quantifying Success in Innovation: Lessons Learned From a Decade of Profiling Emerging Technology Start-ups
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External publication terms for Lux Research Inc. information and data: Any Lux Research information that is to be used in advertising, press releases, or promotional materials requires prior written approval from the appropriate approval by Lux Research Inc.’s Marketing Director. A draft of the proposed document should accompany any such request. Lux Research Inc. reserves the right to deny approval of external usage for any reason.

12

Research Sample

TECHNICAL EXPERTISE • BUSINESS ANALYSIS • PRIMARY DATA

INDEPENDENT • BOLD • OPINIONATED

13…...

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Additives for Lithium Ion Batteries

...최종보고서 한양대학교 윤후영 연구제목: Preparation of high quality conductive material for Li-ion battery 실험 목표 본 연구에서는 기본적으로 섬유의 형성성이 좋은 PAN계 electrospun 섬유를 기반으로 하여 안정화, 탄화 한 후, 그 표면에 결정성의 열분해 탄소를 코팅한 후, 이를 다시 2400oC-280oC 열처리하여 섬유상의 전지 도전재를 제조하는 연구이다. 본 연구는 표면에 코팅된 pyrocarbon이 고온 흑연화 과정에서 PAN계 electrospun 탄화 섬유와는 다른 수축율을 지는 것에 의해 발생하는 응력을 이용하여, 보다 높은 흑연화 특성이 얻어짐으로써 보통 흑연화 과정만 거친 PAN계 electrospun에 비해 높은 전기전도성을 띌 것으로 기대한다. 실험 방법 중간 보고서에서 보고한대로 전기 방사한 PAN 섬유의 섬경을 800nm~1000nm로 맞추어 실험을 진행하려 했지만 생각보다 잘 되지 않고 시간이 부족한 관계로 방사가 잘되며 최대한 두꺼운 섬경을 가진 조건으로 실험을 마저 진행을 하였다. 방사의 조건은 tip의 inner diameter가 0.9mm, 길이가 18mm인 needle을 사용하였으며 tip-to-collector distance(TCD)는 15cm로 실험하였다. 용액은 PAN/DMF 12wt%의 농도로 하였으며 flow rate와 voltage는 각각 3ml/h 와 25kV로 하였다. Collector의 rotating speed는 100rpm, spinneret의 폭과 속도는 각각 100mm와 10mm/s로 설정하였다. 이렇게 제조된 섬유의 SEM 사진에서 100개를 무작위로 선택하여 측정한 결과 평균 395nm의 섬경을 얻었다. Bead는 존재하지 않은 깨끗한 섬유상의 결과물이 나왔다. 위의 방법으로 전기 방사하여 얻어진 알루미늄 호일 한 장에서의 샘플의 크기는 길이: 60cm 폭: 12~15cm 로 측정되었다. 이 한 장의 샘플을 4등분하여 자른 후 길이: 30cm 폭: 4.5cm로 자른 후 길이: 4.5cm 폭: 2~3cm 정도로 말아서 사용하였다. 석영 보트 위에 총 2개의 샘플이 얹혀지고 이를 길이가 60cm 인 전기로를 이용하여 안정화시켰다. 안정화 조건은 모두 200cc/min의 air 분위기에서 승온 속도 1oC/min으로 300oC까지 승온 후 300oC에서 1시간 유지하여 안정화 시켰으며 cooling 역시 air 분위기하에서 진행되었다. Pyrocarbon coating은 길이가 30cm인 짧은 전기로에서만 할 수 밖에 없었기 때문에 안정화시킨 샘플 2개중 하나만 석영 보트 위에 올려서 코팅하였다. 200cc/min의 Ar 분위기에서 5oC/min의 승온 속도로 850oC까지 승온 후 850oC에서 Ar 가스를 끄면서 200cc/min의 CH4 가스로 교체하고 1, 2, 3시간 유지시켜주었다. 목표시간의 코팅 후 cooling은 다시 CH4 가스를 끄고 200cc/min의 Ar 가스로......

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