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Economics

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Submitted By hainimona
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MODUL 04

ESTIMASI PERMINTAAN

METODE LANGSUNG ESTIMASI DEMAND

❖ Wawancara Konsumen Konsumen adalah yang paling mengetahui tentang fungsi permintaan individu mereka untuk komoditas tertentu. Karena itu maka cara yang paling mudah mengestimasi demand mereka menanyakan kepada mereka berapa jumlah komoditi yang akan dibeli mereka pada variasi harga komoditi tersebut, tentu saja dengan memperhatikan juga penentu lain dari demand seperti harga komoditi substitusi dan komplemen.

Bentuk yang paling sederhana adalah wawancara konsumen di pasar tentang berapa banyak barang yang dibeli pada harga yang berbeda. Bentuk yang lebih canggih yaitu dengan wawancara kuesioner.

Masalah yang timbul dalam melakukan metode ini adalah : (1) memilih sampel yang representatif, (2) respons konsumen yang bias, dan (3) ketidakmampuan responden untuk menjawab dengan benar. Sampel yang representatif biasanya adalah sampel yang diambil secara acak yang dapat merepleksikan sifat keseluruhan populasi. Respons yang bias dari konsumen umpamanya ketika mereka yang diwawancarai memberikan jawaban Hipotetis terhadap pertanyaan yang juga Hipotetis.

❖ Eksperimen Pasar Barang dijual di pasar dengan cara pengendalian terhadap semua variabel kecuali harga barang yang dibuat variasi. Tidak ada iklan, konsumen hanya membeli karena kebutuhan mereka. Dari sini dapat diketahui respons konsumen terhadap barang yang dijual paa harga yang berbeda. Analisis dapat dilakukan untuk mengetahui harga yang paling sesuai bagi konsumen dan juga prosedur.

❖ Wawancara Pedagang Pedagang atau produsen dapat diwawancarai untuk mengetahui potensi permintaan pasar. Metode ini merupakan salah satu teknik dari Rapid Marketing Appraisal yang dikembangkan FAO untuk mengetahui secara cepat permintaan pasar terhadap komoditas pertanian. Namun teknik ini bisa dikembangkan untuk seluruh komoditi yang memang memiliki pasar yang jelas.

Katakanlah anda ingin mengetahui potensi pasar Pisang di kota Bogor, maka dari pada mewawancarai konsumen pisang yang jumlahnya bisa ribuan orang dalam sehari, yang bisa anda lakukan sebagai alternatif adalah mewawancarai pedagang pisang. Langkah-langkah yang harus anda lakukan adalah sebagai berikut : 1. Identifikasi berapa jumlah Pasar (P) yang ada di Bogor yang menjual pisang. Dari jumlah itu Katakanlah anda memilih beberapa sampel (p) sebagai lokasi wawancara. 2. Identifikasi berapa rata-rata jumlah pedagang pisang (B) yang ada di pasar, dari mereka tentukan jumlah pedagang pisang (b) yang bisa anda wawancarai. 3. Tanyakan pedagang pisang sampel anda berapa rata-rata jumlah pisang yang dijual setiap hari (h) oleh setiap pedagang, dan berapa hari dalam sebulan (H) kios yang bersangkutan dibuka juga anda harus menanyakan berapa harga pisang setiap hari. 4. Katakanlah anda ingin mengetahui potensi pasar pisang per bulan (Q) di Bogor, maka anda dapat mengestimasinya sebagai berikut : Q = (H* h)* (B)*(P).

I. SPESIFIKASI FUNGSI DEMAN EMPERIS Fungsi permintaan Generik = Qx = ( (Px, Pr, T, Epx, I, N). Dimana Qx = adalah kuantitas barang x yang diminta, Px adalah harga barang x, Pr adalah harga barang lain, baik barang substitusi maupun komplemen, T adalah selera dan rasa, Epx adalah ekspektasi barang x, I adalah pendapatan konsumen, dan N adalah jumlah konsumen. Dalam menentukan variabel pendapatan atau variabel lainnya yang dasar perhitungannya secara regional, pastikan bahwa variabel tersebut dihitung atau ditentukan pada region yang menjadi tujuan studi. Sebagai contoh bila anda menghitung permintaan semen di Sumatera Barat, Hendaklah pendapatan konsumen, atau variabel lainnya seperti penduduk, inflasi juga pada untuk wilayah Sumatera Barat, bukan untuk wilayah lain.

Fungsi demand memiliki berbagai bentuk, sesuai dengan komoditi dan sifat dari permintaan itu sendiri. Namun dua bentuk fungsi yang umum digunakan karena relatif mudah dalam mengestimasinya adalah bentuk Linier dan Log-linear (elastisitas konstan).

Bentuk Liner = Qx = a + bPx + cI + dPr + eN, pada persamaan ini a, b, c, d, dan e adalah parameter persamaan. Parameter b mengukur perubahan jumlah yang diminta akibat perubahan satu unit harga atau sama dengan (Qx / (Px.

Dari data emperis, anda dapat menghitung rata-rata Qx (jumlah yang diminta) dan Px (harga) rata-rata. Kemudian juga elastisitas harga yang adalah sebagai berikut :

E – Harga = [pic]

Dengan cara yang sama, elastisitas pendapatan, elastisitas harga barang lain, dan elastisitas jumlah penduduk dapat juga dihitung.

Bentuk Log-Linier adalah sebagai berikut : Qx = aPxb Ic Prd Ne. Bila dilogaritmakan maka persamaan ini menjadi : Log Qx = Log (a) + b Log (Px) + c Log (I) + d Log (Pr) + e Log (N) Bentuk fungsi demand yang log-linear dapat dengan mudah diestimasi dengan menggunakan teknik pendugaan persamaan linier terhadap data yang terlebih dahulu sudah dilogaritmakan. Tidak seperti pada fungsi demand linear dimana elastisitas harus dihitung, pada fungsi demand dengan persamaan Log-liniear ini, elastisitas dapat secara langsung pada koefisiennya. Jadi b adalah elastisitas harga, c adalah elastisitas pendapatan, dan seterusnya sama untuk variabel lain. Contoh berikut adalah cara untuk verifikasi apakah memang koefisien fungsi merupakan elastisitas. Qx = aPxb Ic Prd Ne [pic] = bQx (Px)-1 E-harga = [bQx (Px)-1] * (Px) * (Qx)-1. dengan mengalikan komponen-komponen persamaan ini maka hasilnya adalah b. dengan demikian b adalah elastisitas, yang dalam hal ini merupakan elastisitas harga.

II. MASALAH SIMULTANITAS DALAM ESTIMASI DEMAND Sejauh ini estimasi demand dilakukan secara parsial yaitu bahwa kuantitas atau jumlah yang diminta diperlakukan sebagai variabel dependent (tidak bebas) atau disebut juga variabel endogenous (yang ditentukan di dalam model atau oleh persamaan). Sedangkan harga diperlakukan sebagai variabel independent (bebas), ditentukan diluar model (exogenous) dan juga disebut dengan variabel explanatory atau variabel yang menerangkan. Dengan cara ini maka harga dipandang sebagai sesuatu yang sudah ada dan langsung dipakai sebagai variabel yang menerangkan atau menentukan jumlah yang diminta (Quantity Demandend). Dalam kenyataannya ternyata perilaku harga dan jumlah yang diminta tidak sesederhana itu. Ada dua hal utama yang patut dipertimbangkan : 1) Dalam dunia nyata harga dan jumlah yang diminta (kuantitas) saling mempengaruhi. Harga seharusnya merupakan variabel yang juga ditentukan dalam model (endogenous). 2) Yang menentukan harga bukan saja demand tetapi juga supply (pemasangan). Keseimbangan atau ekuilibrium antara supply dan demand inilah yang menentukan jumlah yang diminta, yang sekaligus juga merupakan jumlah yang ditawarkan (Quantity Supplied) dan harga. Dengan demikian maka baik kuantitas maupun harga harus merupakan variabel yang ditentukan dalam model secara bersama-sama atau simultanitas. Jadi persoalan simultanitas muncul pada saat estimasi permintaan pasar akan komoditas tertentu dimana variasi harga dan kuantitas barang ditentukan secara bersama oleh perubahan baik pada demand maupun supply.

Demand = Qx = a - bPx Supply = Qx = g + hPx Keseimbangan : Demand = Supply

III. IDENTIFIAKSI FUNGSI DEMAN Fungsi demand hanya dapat teridentifikasi secara simultan bilamana terjadi perubahan (shifting). Pada supply yang disebabkan oleh perubahan salah satu faktor eksplanatorinya tanpa secara simultan mengakibatkan terjadinya perubahan demand. Dengan kata lain sepanjang persamaan supply mengandung sekurang-kurangnya satu variabel yang dapat merubah supply namun variabel tersebut tidak muncul pada persamaan demand maka persamaan demand dapat diidentifikasi dan karena diestimasi. Bila demand tidak dapat diidentifikasi maka estimasi demand akan menghasilkan angka-angka yang salah yang tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan.

IV. TEKNIK TWO-STAGES LEAST SQUARES (2 SLS) Fungsi simultan supply dan demand harus diestimasi dengan menggunakan 2 SLS. Hal ini untuk menghindari bias dari koefisien yang diestimasi. Secara teknis, ini berarti menghindari adanya korelasi antara harga dengan alat baku (terms error) yang dihasilkan oleh fungsi yang diestimasi. Proses estimasi 2 SLS adalah sebagai berikut : Katakanlah : demand tembaga (Qt) adalah ditentukan oleh harga Tembaga (Pt), pendapatan (I), dan harga aluminium (Pa). sementara supply tembaga (Qt) ditentukan oleh harga tembaga (Pt), teknologi (T), dan rasio konsumsi terhadap tembaga pada tahun sebelumnya, dinotasikan dengan X. dengan demikian maka bila konsumsi turun relatif terhadap produksi maka X akan turun juga dan produksi tahun sesudahnya diharapkan juga menurun. Berdasarkan informasi ini maka dapat dikemukakan : Demand = Qt = ( (Pt, I, Pa) Supply = Qt = ( (Pt, T, X) Dengan informasi ini, pertanyaannya apakah fungsi demand teridentifikasi ? karena fungsi supply mengandung dua eksplanatori variabel yang tidak terdapat pada fungsi demand (T dan X) maka fungsi demand teridentifikasi dan karena itu dapat teridentifikasi dan karena itu dapat diestimasi. Prosedur estimasi dengan 2 SLS adalah : Langkah pertama harta tembaga (Pt) sebagai variabel endogenous diregresikan dengan semua explanatory variabel sebagai berikut : Pt = ( (I, Pa, T, dan X) Hasil estimasi fungsi ini digunakan untuk menurunkan nilai prediksi harga (Pt). selanjutnya langkah kedua adalah kuantitas tembaga (Qt) diregresikan dengan prediksi harga Pt, pendapatan (I), dan harga aluminium (Pa) Qt = ( (Pt, I, dan Pa) Hasilnya yaitu nilai koefisien fungsi yang merupakan koefisien fungsi demand.

V. FUNGSI DEMAND PERUSAHAAN YANG PRICE-TAKING DAN PRICE-SETTING : Demand perusahaan berbeda dengan demand industri untuk demand perusahaan, masalah identifikasi mungkin tidak akan muncul. Perusahaan dapat menentukan harga (price-setter) tetapi juga bisa hanya mengambil harga yang berlaku di pasar (price-taker). Untuk perusahaan price-taker fungsi demandnya adalah berbentuk horizontal karena berapapun kuantiti yang dijualnya, harga tetap konstan. Untuk perusahaan yang menentukan harga (price-setter) harga tidak tergantung pada kuantitas barang yang diminta tetapi bisa saja ditentukan oleh perusahaan menurut keinginannya. Karena itu harga bukan endogenous variabel. Ini berarti 2 SLS tidak perlu dilakukan dan langsung hanya menggunakan estimasi demand secara langsung dengan harga sebagai salah satu eksplanatory variabel.

VI. ANALISIS REGRESI Metode statistik yang digunakan untuk mengestimasi berbagai hubungan ekonomi manajerial.

Mengestimasi Parameter Regresi

Y = a + bX Metode kuadrat terkecil (Ols) diterapkan untuk memilih nilai a dan b. Dalam pers diatas setiap titik dapat dispesifikasi dengan hubungan : Yt = â + [pic] xt + et ( Yt = [pic] + ct

Dimana c adalah nilai residual yang mencakup pengaruh semua faktor penentu penjualan lainnya yang tidak dimasukkan dalam persamaan regresi. Et = Yt – Ŷt = Yt – â - [pic]xt Jadi, ekspresi untuk perjualan bagian-bagian kesalahan yang dikuadratkan adalah : (et2 = (Yt - Ŷt)2 = ( (Yt – â - [pic]xt)2 [pic] = [pic] â = [pic]- [pic][pic]

VII. UKURAN KEKUATAN EKSPLANATORI KESELURUHAN Koefisien determinasi (R2) menunjukkan seberapa baik keseluruhan model regresi dalam menerangkan perubahan dalam nilai variabel dependent. Yaitu variabel total dalam variabel dependent yang diterangkan oleh keseluruhan variabel independent yang dicakup dalam sebuah model. Variasi total dalam Y = ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 ( TSS Variasi yang diterangkan = ( (Ŷ - [pic])2 ( ESS Variasi yang tidak diterangkan = ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 = (ut2 ( RSS ( (Yt – [pic] = ( (Ŷt - [pic] + ( (Yt - Ŷt)2 ( TSS = ESS + RSS R2 = [pic] Koefisien determinasi yang dikoreksi [pic]2 [pic]2 = R2 - [pic] Statistik F adalah untuk memberikan bukti apakah proporsi yang secara statistik signifikan dari variasi total dalam variabel dependent telah diterangkan.

F = [pic] Statistik F dapat dihitung dalam bentuk koefisien determinasi sebagai : F = [pic]

KESALAHAN STANDAR DARI ESTIMASI

Untuk menentukan kisaran dimana kita dapat memprediksi variabel dependent dengan tingkat keyakinan statistik yang telah ditetapkan.

UKURAN KEKUATAN EKSPLANATORI VARIABEL INDIVIDUAL

Statistik t dipergunakan untuk mengukur keyakinan yang dapat ditempatkan pada parameter regresi yang diestimasi untuk setiap variabel dependent. t = [pic] Se ([pic]

Uji t dua sisi (Pengujian Selang Keyakinan) Pr [[pic]- t(/2 Se ([pic]) < b < [pic] + t(/2 Se ([pic])] = 1 - (

1. Dengan data pada tabel berikut :
|No. |Quantitas (Qx) |Harga (Px) |Iklan (A) |Pendapatan Konsumen (I) |
| |42100 |11,77 |46100 |38000 |
| |55500 |9,96 |47200 |39100 |
| |71100 |12,36 |60900 |40100 |
| |63200 |12,49 |55600 |44200 |
| |77200 |10,68 |64400 |41800 |
| |70900 |12,07 |60700 |44800 |
| |55600 |11,97 |52100 |39900 |
| |70700 |11,23 |57900 |43600 |
| |71400 |11,26 |55600 |41700 |
| |79400 |9,79 |60100 |41200 |
| |60600 |12,29 |50700 |44000 |
| |50800 |12,70 |46500 |43300 |
| |61800 |12,33 |58900 |41000 |
| |40500 |10,88 |42860 |38300 |
| |85200 |10,14 |64800 |42100 |

- Lakukan analisis regresi sederhana, masing-masing a. Qx = ( (Px, A, 1) b. Tentukan koefisiennya, standar deviasinya dan t hitungnya. c. Hitung elastisitas perubahan Qx akibat perubahan Px, A dan I. d. Mana dari ketiga variabel Px, A, dan I yang paling mempengaruhi Qx ?
2. Dalam melakukan wewenang konsumen, ada tiga masalah yang dihadapi, berikan contoh-contoh masalah tersebut.
3. Untuk fungsi demand dan supply berikut ini, tentukan apakah fungsi demand teridentifikasi dan terangkan kenapa ya atau tidak. a. D : Q = a + bP S : Q = e + (P b. D : Q = a + bP + cM S : Q = c + (P c. D : Q = a + bP S : Q = e + (P + gT d. D : Q = a + bP = cM S : Q = c + (P + gT + hK

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...Thesis Economics Thesis The goal of an economics thesis is to solve a problem regarding the exchange of goods and services in an innovative way. To this end, the student may explore macroeconomics, the study of large economics systems, or microeconomics, the study of person-to-person exchanges of goods and services, in a completely unique manner or in a manner that simply expands on or addresses previous ideas. Students who are struggling to develop ideas for their economics theses may benefit from asking themselves what problems they have a passion for solving. For example, perhaps the student feels greatly irritated about gas prices and could develop an idea on how to cut costs. Perhaps the student has a fascination with the failure of communism and would like to develop a thesis on where the economic system went wrong and why. If the student cannot identify a topic that would produce a viable economics thesis, he or she should talk with the major professor and see if together they can brainstorm a usable idea. Economics theses may have concerns that most disciplines do not have, particularly in formatting. Because pictures can carry a great deal of information in a much more succinct way than text and because economics theses often handle highly complex issues, writers of economics theses may find it useful to include a number of charts, graphs, and tables both in appendices and in the body of the thesis itself. Depending on the complexity of those graphics, the......

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...and the industry price is lower than the monopoly price. The total economic profit made by the industry is also smaller than the monopoly’s economic profit. Therefore the complier incurs an economic loss while the cheater gains economic profit. If since both firms have an incentive to cheat as long as price exceeds marginal cost. In this price-fixing game, it will occur a situation that both firms cheat. If both firms produce more cigarettes than the number agreed, the industry output will be increased, the price of cigarettes will fall and both firms makes zero economic profit, as shown in the figure. -In monopolistic competition a company in the short run, makes its output and price decision just like a monopoly company does. The following figure illustrates the monopolistic competition in the short run. As you can see, when the marginal revenue equals its marginal cost (MR = MC), the firm charges the highest price (P) that buyers are willing to pay for this quantity, which is highly higher than the average total cost (ATC). Therefore the firm makes greatest profit and the consumer pay price that is higher than the market equilibrium price. However, a firm may face a level of demand for its product that is too law for it to make an economic profit. As it shows in the figure, the price that consumers are willing to pay for this output is lower than the average total cost ( P < ATC). The firm makes economic loss. On the other hand, in the long run, the other firms......

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Economics

...Free Essays Home Search Essays FAQ Contact Search: Related Essays - Economics of Information - Introduction There have been discussions among scholars in developed countries regarding economics of information. Developed countries includes Australia, New Zealand, United States, Ireland, Germany...[ view ] - Economics and Growth - The demand curve is likely to change upwards or rise as a result of changes in a number of factors. One, if there is a move up in the price of an alternative commodity, or decrease in price of the giv...[ view ] Classical Economics vs. Keynesian Economics :: 5 Works Cited Length: 1187 words (3.4 double-spaced pages) Rating: Red (FREE) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - My research of Classical Economics and Keynesian Economics has given me the opportunity to form an opinion on this greatly debated topic in economics. After researching this topic in great lengths, I have determined the Keynesian Economics far exceeds greatness for America compared to that of Classical Economics. I will begin my paper by first addressing my understanding of both economic theories, I will then compare and contrast both theories, and end my paper with my opinions on why I believe Keynesian Economics is what is best for America. Classical Economics is a theory that suggests by leaving the free market alone without human intervention; equilibrium will be obtained. This......

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...relations such as China, with a G.D.P growth rate or economic growth rate of nearly 9% a year, China has a faster economic growth rate by 6x. Now what do these numerical figures mean in contrast to leaving the EU? Well, whether or not to leave the EU has a massive effect on our economy, influenced by trade. But how does this correlate to affecting British businesses? Well a faster, well protected economy will allow businesses to run faster, trade faster, produce faster, and become efficient, which in plain English means the business would become better off. My point is, countries which have a very high G.D.P growth rate such as China and India, that are not apart of the EU, achieve great economic figures and statistics, and are economically self-sufficient. Does this mean that Britain would be better not being in the EU? Would this effect trade? Would it affect the economy? Would it affect how well business do? The aim of this project is to determine the best alternative to what we should do as an individual, as a nation, and provide evidence for this. I will be analysing every policy related to the topic, in order to reach an unbiased, and thorough conclusion. I will be assessing the basic economic benefits and negatives, in relation to leaving or staying in the EU, and will be developing these ideas in an economic point of view. I will do this by discussing, and explain key economic theories, and basic Macro economic principles, and how this can be influenced by the......

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Economics

...Scarcity & Opportunity Cost Economics is a very important field of study in modern society. It helps us to understand the choices we have to make to satisfy our unlimited wants and needs to have a better life. Microeconomics is the study of households, firms, and government in specific markets. One of the main problems economics tries to address is scarcity. Scarcity is the term economist use to describe a situation when the amount of something available is not sufficient to satisfy the desire or demand for it. Scarcity can be applied to all aspects of economics and is one of the most crucial points to understand. Because we are consumers in a free market, we live on income constraints or budgets. Limited income forces us to make choices about goods and services we will purchase, as well as goods and services we will forgo. As a society, we also experience scarcity. Societies face scarce economic resources. Economist classify these economic resources into four categories: land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurial ability. Land is considered to be not only physical land but also water, oil, wind, and all other natural resources. Labor would be described as not only the workforce, but the quality of the workers in the workforce. Capital is the facilities, tools, machinery, and any other components that go into manufacturing a good. Entrepreneurial ability is outlined by the people who exploit opportunities in markets. Entrepreneurs combine economic resources with creative......

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...3 different business/economic cycles – a total of 6 economic aggregates – which will include a recession period and an expansion period. I will choose the current economic cycle as the basis to compare the performance of the economy since December 2007 to that of the other 2 business cycles on the basis of the 6 Economic Variables. As a data consistency analysis measure, I will make use of data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) websites in my research. In simple terms, an economic/business cycle refers to fluctuations in aggregate production, trade and activity over several months or years in a market economy. The economic cycle is the upward and downward movements of levels of gross domestic product (GDP) and refers to the period of expansions and contractions in the level of economic activities (business fluctuations) around its long-term growth trend. These fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend, and typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (an expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (a contraction or recession). Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP). Despite being termed cycles, these fluctuations in economic activity can prove to be unpredictable. A. F. Burns and W. C. Mitchell, Measuring business cycles, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research,......

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